This Week: GBPUSD in focus ahead of “Spring Statement”

• Fed officials’ speeches may influence US dollar strength
   
• UK CPI and "Spring Statement" could support GBP
   
• US PCE data on March 28th is crucial for USD outlook
   
• UK releases February retail sales and 4Q GDP data
   
• Global economic data includes PMIs and industrial reports

GBPUSD’s ascent of as much as 7.5% since its mid-January low has been resisted around the big, round, 1.3000 number for the time being.
 

In the week ahead, Bloomberg’s FX model predicts GBPUSD – the FX pair nicknamed “cable” – is likeliest (75.2% chance) to trade between 1.2783 through 1.3073.

From scheduled Fed speak, to the UK’s much-anticipated “Spring Statement”, and key inflation data out of either side of the pond, there are enough major event catalysts that could determine whether GBPUSD ends the final full trading week of Q1 2025 above or below that psychological 1.30 figure.

Events Watchlist:
 

• Monday - Friday, March 24th – 28th: Fed Speak

4 regional Fed presidents are set to deliver public remarks, after the latest FOMC meeting where Chair Powell soothed fears of a recession. Greater confidence that the US economy can stay resilient in the face of President Trump’s tariff onslaught may help the US dollar recover and drag GBPUSD lower and away from 1.3000.

• Wednesday, March 26th: UK February consumer price index (CPI) and “Spring Statement”

Economists predict that UK inflation, as measured by the CPI, reverted to growth on a month-on-month basis, up 0.5% compared to Jan 2025, while rising 2.9% year-on-year (Feb 2025 vs. Feb 2024).

Hours later, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will unveil her economic outlook. Should concerns surrounding the UK economy be diluted, that could raise GBPUSD’s chances of securing a daily close above 1.30.

• Friday, March 28th: US February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index

Note that earlier on Friday, the UK will release its latest retail sales and external trade data, along with the final print of its 4Q GDP. While important for traders, the UK data may be overshadowed by the US PCE prints.

These US PCE prints due later Friday are forecasted to match January’s numbers, except for the Core PCE year-on-year figure which may have ticked higher to 2.7% (vs. Jan’s 2.6% y/y). A lower-than-expected set of PCE numbers that allays “stagflation” fears should strengthen the US dollar and perhaps keep GBPUSD below 1.30.

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:
 

Monday, March 24

• SG20 index: Singapore February CPI
   
• XAU: Global March PMIs (US, Eurozone, UK, Japan, Australia, etc.)
   
• USDInd: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic - TV interview
   

Tuesday, March 25

• TWN index: Taiwan February industrial production
   
• GER40 index: Germany March IFO business climate
   
• US30 index: US February new home sales; March consumer confidence
   
• USDInd: Speech by New York Fed President John Williams
   

Wednesday, March 26

• AUD: Australia February CPI
   
• SGD: Singapore February industrial production
   
• GBP: UK February CPI; “Spring Statement”
   
• USDInd: Estimate on when US Treasury will reach debt ceiling; speech by St. Louis Fed President Albero Musalem
   

Thursday, March 27

• CNH: China February industrial profits (year-to-date)
   
• NOK: Norges Bank rate decision
   
• RUS2000 index: US initial weekly jobless claims; revised 4Q GDP
   
• USDInd: Speech by Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin; 30-year US federal budget outlook
   
• MXN: Mexico rate decision; February trade balance
   

Friday, March 28

• JPY: Tokyo March CPI
   
• EUR: Eurozone March economic confidence; Germany March unemployment
   
• UK100: UK February retail sales; 4Q GDP (final)
   
• USDInd: US February PCE, personal income and spending; speech by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic